If Texas were to leave the United States under unfavorable circumstances, one of the immediate concerns raised is the possibility of economic retaliation from the U.S., such as tariffs or an outright embargo on Texan exports. Given Texas’s status as a major player in oil, agriculture, and technology, the U.S. could try to exert pressure by cutting off trade or imposing steep tariffs on goods flowing to and from the Lone Star State. But here’s the question: Are we prepared for that? The short answer is that, while such measures could be challenging, Texas is more than capable of not only surviving but thriving. In fact, the U.S. may end up suffering more from these actions than Texas.

The Importance of Texas to the U.S. Economy

Before diving into the specifics of how Texas would handle an embargo or economic sanctions, it’s crucial to understand the role Texas plays in the U.S. economy. As the second-largest state by both population and GDP, Texas contributes significantly to the economic health of the United States. If Texas were an independent nation today, its economy would rank as the 9th largest in the world, ahead of countries like Canada and South Korea. Much of this strength comes from Texas’s energy sector, as the state leads the U.S. in both oil and natural gas production.

If the U.S. imposed economic sanctions or embargoed Texas, they’d lose access to a massive supply of energy. States that rely heavily on Texas oil and gas, such as California, would experience soaring energy prices, shortages, and inflation. Additionally, the U.S. would lose out on trade routed through Texas’s ports, such as Houston and Corpus Christi, which are critical hubs for international trade. These disruptions would create a bottleneck in the American supply chain, making it harder for goods to flow efficiently to and from global markets. Simply put, the U.S. cannot afford to cut off Texas without serious economic consequences for itself.

Diversifying Trade Partners

One of the key ways Texas can prepare for economic sanctions or an embargo is by diversifying its trade partners. Currently, the U.S. is Texas’s largest trading partner, but that doesn’t mean Texas couldn’t expand its trade relationships beyond America’s borders. The state already has strong ties with global markets, and there’s plenty of room to grow. Texas could pivot towards deeper trade agreements with Europe, Asia, and South America.

Countries that are highly dependent on energy imports, such as Japan, South Korea, and much of Europe, would likely jump at the chance to secure energy deals with Texas. Additionally, Texas’s agricultural sector, which produces cotton, beef, and grains, could find buyers in markets eager for stable food sources. By strengthening these relationships now, Texas can mitigate the impact of any U.S. sanctions.

Energy Independence: Texas’s Trump Card

If there’s one area where Texas holds a clear advantage, it’s in energy. Texas is home to vast reserves of oil and natural gas, and it has been a leader in renewable energy like wind power. These resources provide a significant buffer against economic sanctions. In fact, the U.S. would suffer more from losing access to Texas energy than Texas would from losing U.S. markets.

Consider this: the U.S. consumes more energy than it produces, and Texas accounts for a large portion of that energy production. An embargo on Texas oil would cause a supply shock in the U.S. that would ripple across the country, driving up energy costs and leading to inflation. Meanwhile, Texas could redirect its energy exports to international markets, maintaining its economic base even without U.S. buyers.

Ports and International Trade

Texas’s geographic location gives it another critical advantage—its ports. The Port of Houston, one of the largest in the world, handles a significant volume of international trade. If the U.S. were to embargo Texas, the state would still have access to international markets via its Gulf Coast ports, and it could expand its trade partnerships with countries that are eager for stable access to energy and raw materials.

The infrastructure is already in place to support this shift. Texas’s ports are well-developed and capable of handling high volumes of trade. The state’s road and rail networks further connect it to the rest of North America, making it a key logistics hub. Texas could leverage these strengths to ensure that it continues to thrive, even if cut off from U.S. trade.

The U.S. Has More to Lose

Ultimately, while economic sanctions or an embargo would present challenges for Texas, it’s clear that the United States would stand to lose just as much—if not more. Losing access to Texas’s energy, agriculture, and ports would cripple sectors of the U.S. economy, leading to higher prices, supply chain disruptions, and economic instability.

Texas, on the other hand, is well-positioned to adapt. By expanding its international trade partnerships, leveraging its energy independence, and utilizing its world-class ports, Texas can navigate these challenges successfully. Just as Texans fought for and won their independence in 1836, the state is fully capable of overcoming any economic obstacles that stand in the way of securing its future as a sovereign nation.

In the end, economic warfare with Texas would hurt the U.S. more than it would hurt us. The Lone Star State’s unique strengths give it the tools to not only survive but thrive on the global stage, independent from Washington’s control.