The question of whether TEXIT could spark a civil war concerns some. Still, examining the Texit process and the current political landscape makes it clear that civil war is not a likely outcome. Texit could be the solution to avoid the very civil war many experts fear is on the horizon due to growing political polarization in the United States. The Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM) has committed to a peaceful and legal pathway to independence, and any federal attempt to use force would likely lead to its own dissolution. Let’s explore why civil war isn’t a realistic outcome of Texit, and why Texit might actually prevent a much larger national crisis.

Defining Civil War and Why It Doesn’t Apply to Texit

A civil war typically involves violent conflict between organized factions within a country, fighting over control of the government or territory. Violence is a core element in any definition of civil war, whether it’s a large-scale conflict like the American Civil War or smaller insurgencies. In contrast, Texit is a peaceful, legal process that allows Texans to vote on their future. The Texas Nationalist Movement explicitly rejects violence as a tool for political change. If violence were to occur, it would have to be initiated by the federal government—and as we’ll see, that scenario is highly unlikely.

The Texit Process: Why Violence Is Impractical at Every Stage

The Texit process ensures that Texas follows a legal, democratic route to independence. Here’s why federal violence at any stage would not make sense:

1. The Referendum Vote – The first step in Texit is holding a referendum where Texans can vote on whether to begin the process of becoming an independent nation. This vote is entirely legal under both the U.S. and Texas constitutions. If the federal government were to intervene violently at this point, it would be attacking the democratic process—a principle it has supported globally for decades. Any violent response to a peaceful vote would undermine the U.S.’s international reputation as a defender of democracy.
2. Post-Referendum Negotiations – If Texans vote for independence, the next step would be negotiations with the federal government over the specifics of separation, including the division of assets, military arrangements, and trade relations. Federal intervention through violence at this point would be political suicide. The world would see the U.S. acting against its own legal principles, and Texas would have the moral high ground.
3. The Transition to Independence – Once negotiations are completed, Texas would begin its transition to full independence. By this stage, Texas would have established international partnerships, diplomatic ties, and trade agreements. Any federal attempt to intervene militarily would not only be seen as an act of imperialism, but would also provoke economic sanctions and international condemnation. Texas, being a significant player in energy production and agriculture, would already have allies who would oppose any disruption to their new trade relationships with an independent Texas.

The Looming Threat: U.S. Political Polarization and Civil War Predictions

It’s important to recognize that while a civil war following Texit is unlikely, many experts believe that the United States is already on a path toward civil conflict due to deep political divisions. A 2022 poll by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics found that 52% of Trump voters and 41% of Biden voters support the idea of red and blue states forming separate countries. This polarization is reaching a breaking point, with the January 6th Capitol riot as just one example of how fragile the political climate has become.

Political violence is on the rise, and some believe that the United States could face civil unrest or even armed conflict if political divisions continue to deepen. In this context, Texit offers a peaceful alternative—a way for Texas to separate itself from the dysfunction of Washington and avoid being drawn into a national conflict.

Texit as a Solution to Avoiding Civil War

Texit provides a legal, peaceful pathway that could help the United States avoid civil war. As tensions rise and political divisions deepen, the U.S. is becoming increasingly difficult to govern as a single entity. The political, cultural, and economic differences between states like Texas and California are growing wider every year. By allowing states like Texas to peacefully withdraw, the U.S. could diffuse some of this tension and avoid a violent national breakup.

• Texit as a Pressure Release Valve – By pursuing Texit through legal and democratic means, Texas would avoid contributing to the political volatility of the U.S. A successful Texit could act as a pressure release valve, allowing the U.S. to maintain its integrity while letting regions with divergent values chart their own futures.
• Setting a Precedent for Peaceful Withdrawal – When Texit succeeds, it could serve as a model for other states that may wish to pursue independence. Rather than forcing states to remain part of the union and risking violent uprisings, the federal government could recognize that peaceful secession is a legitimate option. This would prevent the kind of widespread violence seen in countries where secessionist movements are forcibly suppressed.
• Avoiding Federal Overreach – A significant factor in the current political divide is federal overreach—the sense that Washington is imposing policies that do not reflect the values or needs of individual states. By peacefully withdrawing from the union, Texas would no longer be subject to laws or policies it does not support, reducing the potential for future conflict between state and federal governments.

The U.S. Military and the Limits of Federal Force

One of the most important barriers to federal violence against Texas is the Posse Comitatus Act, which prevents the U.S. military from being used for domestic law enforcement unless authorized by Congress. This makes it illegal for the federal government to deploy military force to suppress Texit unless Texas is in active rebellion, which it would not be under a peaceful Texit process.

Moreover, military personnel are bound by both legal and ethical standards. Many U.S. soldiers come from Texas, and it is highly unlikely that they would follow orders to attack their own citizens. Historically, the U.S. military has refused to carry out illegal orders, and the same would happen if the government tried to use force to stop Texit. Any such order would trigger a constitutional crisis, with many military leaders likely refusing to act.

The Response from Other States: Union Fragmentation

If the federal government attempted to suppress Texas’ peaceful exit with violence, it would likely face backlash not only from Texans but from other states as well. A recent SurveyUSA poll revealed that nearly 93% of Americans in other states believe that the federal government should not use force to stop a state from leaving the union peacefully. This indicates significant national support for state sovereignty and peaceful secession.

A federal crackdown on Texit could inspire other states—particularly those with strong independence movements or discontent with federal policies—to pursue their own bids for secession. States like Wyoming, Idaho, or parts of California could decide that the federal government no longer represents their interests, leading to a domino effect of states seeking independence. This would further weaken the union and make the idea of preserving it through force increasingly unviable.

International Response: Hypocrisy and Global Isolation

The international community would not look kindly on any federal attempt to suppress Texas through violence. For decades, the United States has been the global champion of self-determination, promoting the right of people to choose their own political futures. From the breakup of the Soviet Union to the independence of South Sudan, the U.S. has consistently supported movements for national self-determination.

If the U.S. were to violently suppress Texit, it would be seen as an enormous act of hypocrisy. Key global players, including the European Union, the United Nations, and economic partners like Japan and South Korea, would likely condemn the U.S. and impose economic sanctions. The damage to America’s global reputation would be severe, and the economic consequences could cripple its standing as a superpower.

Moreover, Texas plays a crucial role in the global economy as a major exporter of energy and agricultural products. Any violent disruption of Texas’ economy would have far-reaching consequences, disrupting energy supplies and trade routes. International markets would respond negatively to such instability, further isolating the U.S. on the world stage.

The Bottom Line: A No-Win Scenario for the Federal Government

The idea of a civil war resulting from Texit is not grounded in reality. The Texit process is legal, peaceful, and democratic, leaving the federal government with no legitimate justification for initiating violence. Here’s why violence would be a no-win scenario for Washington:

• Military force would be illegal under the Posse Comitatus Act, and military personnel would likely refuse illegal orders.
• Other states would pursue their own secession movements, leading to further fragmentation of the union.
• International condemnation would damage the U.S.’s global reputation, potentially leading to sanctions and economic isolation.
• Texas would have international support, making military intervention not only impractical but disastrous for U.S. foreign relations.

Ultimately, the U.S. government understands, just as Texans do, that using force against a peaceful, democratic movement like Texit would only accelerate the dissolution of the union. The future of Texas lies in the hands of Texans, and through a democratic process, they can achieve independence without the specter of civil war.

Texit as the Peaceful Path Forward

In summary, civil war is not a realistic outcome of Texit. The legal and peaceful Texit process eliminates the need for violence, and any attempt by the federal government to intervene through force would lead to its own collapse. Moreover, with experts predicting that the U.S. is already on the path to civil war due to political polarization, Texit could serve as a peaceful solution—a way to allow Texas, and perhaps other states, to pursue independence without resorting to conflict.

Texit represents not the cause of civil war but the means to avoid one. By pursuing a peaceful, democratic path to independence, Texas can achieve its goals without bloodshed, setting an example for the other states of the union and the world.